Charted: Four Decades of U.S. Tech IPOs

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June 19, 2024 Graphics/Design:

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Charting Four Decades of U.S. Tech IPOs

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Big technology companies have been enjoying a wave of stock market success, driving much of the growth in the S&P 500 index since the pandemic. Five of the companies currently dubbed the “Magnificent Seven” are behemoths in the tech space, with market capitalizations rivaling the size of entire countries’ GDPs.

We visualize the number of tech IPOs on American exchanges from 1980–2023. Data is sourced from “Initial Public Offerings: Updated Statistics” a database run by economist Jay R. Ritter, from the Warrington College of Business, University of Florida.

ℹ️ Tech stocks are defined as internet-related stocks plus other technology stocks, not including biotech New Tech Listings in 2021 Broke a 20-Year-Record

From the heydays of the Dotcom boom, when more than 350 companies hit the exchanges in 1999, the number of tech IPOs has dropped steeply over the years.

In fact, the Dotcom boom, driven by investor enthusiasm for internet technologies, and subsequent bust, due to a lack of capital and business viability, left a significant impact on the market. Tech IPOs stayed in the double-digits for the next 20 years.

YearU.S. Tech IPOs 198022 198172 198242 1983173 198450 198537 198677 198759 198828 198935 199032 199171 1992115 1993127 1994115 1995205 1996276 1997174 1998113 1999370 2000261 200124 200220 200318 200461 200545 200648 200776 20086 200914 201033 201136 201240 201345 201453 201538 201621 201730 201840 201938 202048 2021126 20226 20239

However, 2021 saw a significant uptick after

What History Reveals About Interest Rate Cuts

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May 23, 2024 Graphics & Design What History Reveals About Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve has overseen seven cycles of interest rate cuts, averaging 26 months and 6.35 percentage points (ppts) each.

We’ve partnered with New York Life Investments to examine the impact of interest rate cut cycles on the economy and on the performance of financial assets in the U.S. to help keep investors informed. 

A Brief History of Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rates are a powerful tool that the central bank can use to spur economic activity. 

Typically, when the economy experiences a slowdown or a recession, the Federal Reserve will respond by cutting interest rates. As a result, each of the previous seven rate cut cycles—shown in the table below—occurred during or around U.S. recessions, according to data from the Federal Reserve. 

Interest Rate Cut CycleMagnitude (ppts) July 2019–April 2020-2.4 July 2007–December 2008-5.1 November 2000–July 2003-5.5 May 1989–December 1992-6.9 August 1984–October 1986-5.8 July 1981–February 1983-10.5 July 1974–January 1977-8.3 Average-6.4

Understanding past economic and financial impacts of interest rate cuts can help investors prepare for future monetary policy changes.

The Economic Response: Inflation

During past cycles, data from the Federal Reserve, shows that, on average, the inflation rate continued to decline throughout (-3.4 percentage points), largely due to the lagged effects of a slower economy that normally precedes interest rate declines. 

CycleStart to end change (ppts)End to one year later (ppts) July 2019–April 2020-1.5+3.8 July 2007–December 2008-2.3+2.6 November 2000–July 2003-1.3+0.9 May 1989–December 1992-2.5-0.2 August 1984–October 1986-2.8+3.1 July 1981–February 1983-7.3+1.1 July 1974–January 1977-6.3+1.6 Average-3.4+1.9

However, inflation played catch-up and rose by +1.9 percentage points one year after the final rate cut. With lower interest rates, consumers were incentivized to spend more and save less, which led to an uptick in the price of goods and services in six of the past seven cycles. 

The Economic Response: Real Consumer Spending Growth

Real consumer spending growth, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, typically reacted to rate

Visualizing Global Inflation Forecasts (2024-2026)

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May 3, 2024 Article/Editing: Graphics/Design:

Visualizing Global Inflation Forecasts (2024-2026)

Global inflation rates are gradually descending, but progress has been slow.

Today, the big question is if inflation will decline far enough to trigger easing monetary policy. So far, the Federal Reserve has held rates for nine months amid stronger than expected core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices.

Yet looking further ahead, inflation forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest that inflation will decline as price pressures ease, but the path of disinflation is not without its unknown risks.

This graphic shows global inflation forecasts, based on data from the April 2024 IMF World Economic Outlook.

Get the Key Insights of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook

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The IMF’s Inflation Outlook

Below, we show the IMF’s latest projections for global inflation rates through to 2026:

YearGlobal Inflation Rate (%)Advanced Economies
Inflation Rate (%)Emerging Market and
Developing Economies
Inflation Rate (%) 20193.51.45.1 20203.20.75.2 20214.73.15.9 20228.77.39.8 20236.84.68.3 20245.92.68.3 20254.52.06.2 20263.72.04.9

After hitting a peak of 8.7% in 2022, global inflation is projected to fall to 5.9% in 2024, reflecting promising inflation trends amid resilient global growth.

While inflation has largely declined due to falling energy and goods prices, persistently high services inflation poses challenges to mitigating price pressures. In addition, the IMF highlights the potential risk of an escalating conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to energy price shocks and higher shipping costs.

These developments could negatively affect inflation scenarios and prompt central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies. Overall, by 2026, global inflation is anticipated to decline to 3.7%—still notably above the 2% target set by several major economies.

Adding to this, we can see divergences in the path of inflation between advanced and emerging economies. While affluent nations are forecast to see inflation edge closer to the 2% target by 2026, emerging economies are projected to have inflation rates

Visualized: Interest Rate Forecasts for Advanced Economies

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May 1, 2024 Article/Editing: Graphics/Design:

Interest Rate Projections for Advanced Economies

While U.S. inflation cooled in the second half of last year, price pressures returned in 2024, leading investors to rethink how soon central bankers will cut rates.

Despite the recent increase, the interest rate forecast for many economies looks optimistic, thanks to subdued energy price shocks and abating supply chain disruptions. Still, short-term risks remain, including persistently high services inflation clouding the outlook.

This graphic shows the interest rate forecast for advanced economies, based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2024 World Economic Outlook.

Get the Key Insights of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook

Want a visual breakdown of the insights from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook report?

This visual is part of a special dispatch of the key takeaways exclusively for VC+ members.

Get the full dispatch of charts by signing up to VC+.

A Closer Look at the IMF Interest Rate Forecast

Below, we show the projected path of interest rates based on the IMF’s latest data:

Federal ReserveBank of EnglandECBBank of Japan Q1 20245.4%4.0%-0.1%5.3% Q2 20245.3%3.9%0.0%5.3% Q3 20245.0%3.7%0.0%5.0% Q4 20244.7%3.4%0.1%4.8% Q1 20254.5%3.2%0.1%4.5% Q2 20254.3%3.0%0.1%4.3% Q3 20254.1%2.7%0.1%4.0% Q4 20253.9%2.7%0.2%3.8% Q1 20263.7%2.6%0.3%3.5% Q2 20263.5%2.6%0.4%3.5% Q3 20263.3%2.6%0.4%3.5% Q4 20263.1%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q1 20272.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q2 20272.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q3 20272.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q4 20272.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q1 20282.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q2 20282.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q3 20282.9%2.6%0.6%3.5% Q4 20282.9%2.6%0.6%3.5%

As we can see, the U.S. is forecast to see its first rate cut in the second quarter of 2024.

Broadly speaking, rates will be cut very gradually, with two additional rate cuts anticipated for this year. By 2027, interest rates are projected to fall to 2.9% after a series of moderate rate cuts as inflation dissipates.

Like the U.S., the European Central Bank is forecast to cut rates in the second quarter of 2024, with rates set to fall to 2.6% by 2026. While inflation has cooled at a faster rate across Europe compared to the U.S., GDP growth is also projected to be more muted. This year, the IMF projects that