How Oil Is Adding Fuel to Geopolitical Fragmentation

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10 mins ago

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June 11, 2024 How Oil Is Adding Fuel to Global Fragmentation

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe bans or restrictions on Russian oil from the West. Meanwhile, other nations—including China, India, and Türkiye—opted to deepen trade ties with the country.

This graphic from the Hinrich Foundation is the final visualization in a three-part series covering the future of trade. It provides visual context to the growing divide among countries shunning Russian oil versus those taking advantage of the excess supply.

Which Countries Have Decreased or Banned Russian Oil Imports?

This analysis uses data from the IEA’s February 2024 Oil Market Report on Russian oil exports from 2021 to 2023.

Following the invasion, both the U.S. and the UK enacted a complete ban on Russian crude. Imports dropped from 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to zero by late-2022. 

Country/Region2021 (bpd)2022 (bpd)2023 (bpd)Change; 2021-2023 (bpd) EU3.3M3.0M600K-2.7M UK & U.S.600K100K0-600K OECD Asia500K200K0-500K

Similarly, the EU, which has historically been more reliant on oil from Russia, dropped imports by over 80%, from 3.3 million bpd in 2021 to 600,000 bpd in 2023.

OECD Asia-Pacific—which includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—also slashed their Russian oil imports. 

Which Countries Have Increased Imports of Russian Oil?

The pullback in demand for Russian crude from the West created a buying opportunity for countries and regions that chose not to support Western sanctions. 

Country/Region2021 (bpd)2022 (bpd)2023 (bpd)Change; 2021-2023 (bpd) India100K900K1.9M+1.8M China1.6M1.9M2.3M+700K Türkiye200K400K700K+500K Africa100K100K400K+300K Middle East100K200K300K+200K Latin America100K100K200K+100K Other800K600K900K+100K

India increased its imports of oil from Russia, by the largest amount from 2021 to 2023—up to 1.9 million bpd from only 100,000 bpd. 

China, the biggest net importer, also saw a large uptick. The country boosted imports for Russian oil by over 40% over this timeframe. Türkiye increased imports of Russian crude by an additional 500,000 bpd. 

Several other regions—such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America—saw slight upticks in imports. 

Shifting Trade Dependencies

The dynamics present in the global crude market underscore broader trends in Russia’s trade relationships. Russia is becoming increasingly less economically reliant on the West

Who Rules the Waves? U.S. and Chinese Fleets, by Tonnage

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24 mins ago

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June 5, 2024

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

Who Rules the Waves? U.S. and Chinese Fleets, by Tonnage

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

China’s third aircraft carrier recently began its sea trials, and there are reports that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy already has more ships than the United States, just how do these superpower rivals stack up, ton for ton?

This graphic from Chris Dickert looks at the Chinese and U.S. navies by tonnage using data from the International Institute for Security Studies.

Key Takeaways The U.S. Navy has over 3.6 million (U.S.) tons of ships in its fleet, more than seven times the size China’s combined fleets of less than half a million tons. While China boasts the largest number of ships, 875 between both the PLA Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard, against the U.S. Navy’s 364, they are generally smaller and less advanced than their U.S. counterparts. The Chinese Coast Guard has received many of the PLA Navy’s older ships, however the vast majority of their ships are patrol and coastal combatants that average 156 tons apiece and aren’t able to sail far from China’s coast. Even as the U.S. Navy edges out the PLA Navy across the board, China does hold a 2:1 edge in tonnage of landing ships and craft, reflecting the Asian superpower’s stated policy goal of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland. BranchShip TypeNumberTonnage (U.S. short ton) PLA NavyLanding Crafts781,789 PLA NavyLanding Ships5228,410 PLA NavyPrincipal Amphibious Ships1165,000 PLA NavyAircraft Carriers2137,500 PLA NavyCruisers813,000 PLA NavyDestroyer4270,480 PLA NavyFrigates4913,810 PLA NavyStrategic1230,000 PLA NavyTactical4727,219 U.S. NavyAmphibious396,050 U.S. NavyLanding Craft14111,692 U.S. NavyPrincipal Amphibious Ships31843,580 U.S. NavyAircraft Carriers111,100,000 U.S. NavyCruisers15159,390 U.S. NavyDestroyer73619,964 U.S. NavyFrigates2477,600 U.S. NavyStrategic14262,500 U.S. NavyTactical52431,124 China Coast GuardLanding Ships24,800 China Coast GuardLogistics and Support2711,085 China Coast GuardPatrol and Coastal Combatants54585,425 1,2394,090,418

Charted: What Southeast Asia Thinks About China & the U.S.

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47 mins ago

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May 3, 2024 Graphics/Design:

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

What Southeast Asia Thinks About China & the U.S.

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

This chart visualizes the results of a 2024 survey conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Nearly 2,000 respondents were asked if they were worried or welcoming of rising Chinese and American geopolitical influence in their country.

The countries surveyed all belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a political and economic union of 10 states in Southeast Asia.

Feelings Towards China

On average, a significant share of respondents from all 10 countries are worried about rising influence from both the U.S. and China.

However, overall skepticism is higher for China, at 74% (versus 59% for U.S.).

CountryWorried About Growing
🇨🇳 InfluenceWelcome Growing
🇨🇳 Influence 🇧🇳 Brunei58%42% 🇰🇭 Cambodia66%34% 🇮🇩 Indonesia57%43% 🇱🇦 Laos68%32% 🇲🇾 Malaysia56%44% 🇲🇲 Myanmar95%5% 🇵🇭 Philippines81%19% 🇸🇬 Singapore74%26% 🇹🇭 Thailand84%16% 🇻🇳 Vietnam96%4% Average74%27%

The recently-cooled but still active territorial concerns over the South China Sea may play a significant role in these responses, especially in countries which are also claimants over the sea.

For example, in Vietnam over 95% of respondents said they were worried about China’s growing influence.

Feelings Towards America

Conversely, rising American influence is welcomed in two countries with competing claims in the South China Sea, the Philippines (69%) and Vietnam (55%).

CountryWorried About Growing
🇺🇸 InfluenceWelcome Growing
🇺🇸 Influence 🇧🇳 Brunei73%27% 🇰🇭 Cambodia58%42% 🇮🇩 Indonesia73%27% 🇱🇦 Laos79%21% 🇲🇾 Malaysia68%32% 🇲🇲 Myanmar45%55% 🇵🇭 Philippines32%69% 🇸🇬 Singapore37%63% 🇹🇭 Thailand80%20% 🇻🇳 Vietnam45%55% Average59%41%

Despite this, on a regional average, more respondents worry about growing American influence (59%) than they welcome it (41%).

Interestingly, it seems almost every ASEAN nation has a clear preference for one superpower over the other.

The