Fed's favorite inflation gauge is expected to show very slow progress on Friday

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The Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices will be released Friday morning and is expected to show inflation in April running at a 2.7% annual rate, according to Dow Jones. Fed policymakers prefer the PCE measure as it accounts for shifts in consumer behavior, such as when shoppers will substitute less-expensive items for pricier ones. People shop at a supermarket in Montebello, California, on May 15, 2024.  Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

Inflation is taking baby steps towards coming back to where policymakers want it, with a report due Friday expected to show more of that creeping progress.

The Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices is expected to show inflation in April running at a 2.7% annual rate, according to the Dow Jones estimates both for overall inflation and the “core” that excludes food and energy costs.

If that forecast holds, it will represent a slight decline on the core measure and little change on the overall rate, though economists will be looking at both the annual and monthly measures. Core inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.2%, which would represent at least some further progress toward easing price pressure on weary consumers.

Overall, the report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, likely will point to another incremental move back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

“We do not expect any major upward or downward surprises in Friday’s PCE as most of the recent economic data is indicative of an economy that has settled into a nice long-term simmer of not too hot and not too cold,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. “That said, getting to the Fed’s 2% target is apt to be a bumpy landing.”

Getting a handle on inflation is proving tricky these days.

The Fed parses the data in many ways, most recently introducing what has been known as the “super-core” level that looks at services costs excluding food, energy and housing as a way to measure longer-term trends.

However, policymakers’ expectations that housing inflation will cool this year have been largely thwarted, throwing another wrinkle into the debate.

Moreover, the Fed’s preference on PCE is a bit arcane, as the public focuses more on the Labor Department’s consumer price index, which has shown much higher trends. CPI inflation ran

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The full article is available here. This article was published at CNBC Economics.