Policy Taskforce will Drive Government Action on Net Zero

Appointments signal growing momentum behind UN-sponsored efforts to promote policy consistency to support non-state actors’ commitments.  

The recently-confirmed members of a taskforce created to increase the quality and consistency of private sector net zero pledges are targeting COP29 for their assessment of enabling environments in Group of 20 (G20) countries.   The Taskforce on Net Zero Policy will play a pivotal role in ensuring policymakers effectively enable…

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Take Five: Goodnight Vienna

A selection of the major stories impacting ESG investors, in five easy pieces. 

A big step forward was taken this week by Europe to protect nature, or was it?

Viennese waltz – Sighs of relief rather than celebratory cheers greeted the formal adoption of the Nature Restoration Law (NRL) by the Council of the European Union. The NRL, which commits to restoring at least 20% of member states’ land and sea areas by 2030, had failed to secure sufficient backing from governments in March. And it only scraped through this week after Austria’s climate and environment minister defied senior coalition partners, prompting fury and threats of legal action from Chancellor Karl Nehammer. It remains possible that the NRL – which barely survived a bumpy passage through the European Parliament last year – could yet face a reverse. This would be embarrassing for Europe to say the least, and far from helpful to efforts in Colombia in October to build out the Global Biodiversity Framework, particularly given the limited progress made on setting COP16’s agenda at an interim summit in Kenya last month. Even if the NRL remains untrammelled by Austrian political strife, intergovernmental negotiations on how its objectives are met via member states’ national restoration plans will be instructive, given Europe’s recently redrawn electoral landscape.

The next big thing – It can take a long time to become an overnight success. And many other factors besides. Chipmaker Nvidia took 25 years to reach a market capitalisation of US$1 trillion, before more than trebling in value to US$3.3 trillion in 12 months, overtaking Microsoft and Apple this week to become the world’s largest company. The firm’s meteoric rise stems from its strong positioning to profit from the explosion of investment in AI, which is rapidly expanding beyond the IT sector to early adopters in fields such as finance and healthcare, and predicted use cases elsewhere. But does Nvidia deserve a place in a sustainable investment portfolio? The California-based firm’s ESG scores are impressive, which is not a given for a sector known for resource consumption, especially water. But a bigger sustainability question might be raised with regard to Nvidia’s client base, which has yet to prove it can deliver on AI’s promises reliably or ethically. Governance concerns and social risks have worried policymakers and investors increasingly, with rules being introduced in multiple jurisdictions and questions being asked at the recent

South Korea’s Gas Gamble Risks Stranded Assets

IEEFA Energy Finance Specialist Michelle Kim explains why the country’s East Sea gas development will not strengthen its energy security.

South Korea’s Yoon Suk-yeol administration recently announced the exploratory drilling of potentially massive oil and gas reserves in the East Sea, estimated to hold up to 14 billion barrels of oil and gas. This project aims to address the country’s natural gas demand for 29 years and oil demand for four years.

The government will launch the project, which costs around ₩100 billion (US$73 million), by the end of the year, with initial results expected in the first half of 2025. However, as South Korea’s natural gas demand declines, large oil and gas developments in the East Sea could become stranded assets due to the country’s accelerating decarbonisation efforts.

In the long term, the transition to clean energy will better support national energy security and sustainability rather than an overreliance on fossil fuels.

Declining gas demand amid energy transition

By the time the East Sea gas field becomes commercially operational around 2035, South Korea’s natural gas demand will have significantly decreased due to the energy transition. The country’s natural gas demand is already declining, falling 4.9% in 2023 due to higher nuclear and renewable power generation and reduced city gas demand, impacted by high import costs.

Given South Korea’s strengthened decarbonisation targets, this trend will persist in the coming years. The recent 11th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand (BPLE) implementation guideline indicated that the share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the power mix will decline to 11.1% by 2038, a substantial drop from 26.8% in 2023.

South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy also estimates that natural gas demand will decline to 37.66 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) by 2036, with an average annual decline of 1.38%, due to a shrinking population and slowing economic growth rates.

In addition, the global natural gas market is expected to face an oversupply from 2026 onwards, driven by massive expansions from the US and Qatar. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) estimates that the world’s total nameplate liquefaction capacity could reach 666.5 MTPA by 2028. This suggests that cheap natural gas supply will be available in the market, with existing contracts and purchases from the glutted spot market able to cover future gas needs.

Growing stranded asset risks

Investing taxpayers’ money

From Macro to Micro

Emilio Barucci, Professor of Financial Mathematics at Politecnico di Milano, says more advanced and sophisticated climate risk models are needed to support ESG investing.

ESG investing focuses on investment processes and products that take into account the ESG features of stocks, bonds and mutual funds. The growth of ESG investing, in terms of assets under management, is driven both by investors, whose activities are affected by factors not limited to economic performance, and therefore to the risk-return trade-off, and by regulation aiming to promote sustainable investment and financial products as part of the green transition.

The relationship between ESG and economic performance

The three pillars of ESG look quite different along two dimensions at least. First of all, the indicators capturing ESG features are different in nature. While it is difficult to measure a company’s ethical performance or corporate governance, which is coming under increased scrutiny, the extent to which an organisation meets its environmental targets can be quantified considering Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions, the amount of green energy used and other metrics. The quality of data and their evaluation is a crucial issue, which, at QFinLab – the Quantitative Finance Lab of the Department of Mathematics at Politecnico di Milano – we are addressing through our ESG Corporate Data, which focuses on companies listed in the Italian stock exchange. The initiative aims to provide a repository of ESG data for the Italian market with reliable information and an annual report exploring key trends in the ESG transition.

The connection between the three dimensions of ESG and economic performance, moreover, is not well-established. This point is crucial, as a simple approach to ESG investing based, for instance, on the exclusion of certain sectors from the investment process – an approach very popular a few years ago – is no longer viable, in that it is in contrast with the mandatory duty of asset managers. A more suitable approach, which requires investors to estimate how the ESG profile of a company impacts its future economic performance, should aim to integrate ESG factors into the asset management process. Organisations, in other words, are grappling with the issue of double counting, in the sense of economic and ESG performance, which is not an easy challenge to address.

The multiple facets of climate risk

From an investment perspective, climate risk deserves special attention. It comes in two different forms: physical and

Horses for Courses

Winning the renewables race is all about location, according to Richard Lum, Co-CIO, Victory Hill Capital Partners.

The transition to a low-carbon economy is creating a once-in-a-generation dislocation in energy markets, fundamentally bringing the longevity of current energy infrastructure into question. For example, whereas energy systems designed for oil, coal and gas were predicated on centralised power generation, there is now a burgeoning need to upgrade or reform power grids to a distributed model, accommodating the growth of renewable energy sources as we progress towards net zero goals.

This gap between legacy energy infrastructure and a sustainable, low-carbon future provides an opportunity for astute investors. But capitalising upon uncertainties like supply security and price volatility at peak times is not as simple as swapping every coal-powered energy plant for a wind farm. Globally, the energy transition is taking place at varying speeds in different locations, leading to profound differences in how renewables assets perform.

These differences are partly due to inherent regional characteristics that render some methods of clean energy generation more effective than others depending on where you are. For instance, France’s robust nuclear power infrastructure, supported by strong policy and regulation, has lessened the demand for new sources of renewable energy in its electricity grid. Or China, where expansive land mass and suitable climate conditions have allowed renewables developers to build 2,919GW of solar capacity.

But identifying beneficial investment opportunities requires more than locating wind farm projects where there is wind, and solar fields where there is sun, or ‘copying and pasting’ one lucrative project framework into regions with physical and regulatory similarities.

The value drivers are local

While a broadbrush approach to green infrastructure investment might go some way towards meeting global energy needs, the drivers of value are inherently local. Taking a broad approach could come at the cost of investor returns, ultimately jeopardising the long-term financing prospects for the transition. Investors will need to evaluate each project at a granular level, assessing its merits in consideration of its location by looking at everything from weather, geography, politics and regulation, to the stage of the energy transition journey that the country is currently in.

In other words, varying market conditions mean that to fruitfully participate in transition projects globally, investors must account for the fact that renewable technology will perform differently in different places, with direct knock-on effects on performance and investor returns.

A good example

Greenwashing Risk Grows in China ESG Funds

Chinese asset managers are improving ESG awareness, but weak regulation means green claims often don’t match reality, says Greenpeace.

Greenwashing is a growing risk in the Chinese fund management sector, as marketing of ESG products runs ahead of standards and regulatory oversight, a new report by Greenpeace has found. The environmental campaign group’s study of 16 major Chinese asset managers found they had improved their awareness of climate risk…

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Sovereign Wealth Funds’ Social Focus

Ana Nacvalovaite, Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, explains how investing in employee-owned businesses can help sovereign funds create prosperity for future generations.

Sovereign wealth funds’ (SWFs) assets under management (AUM) hit an all-time high of US$11.2 trillion globally in 2023, according to the Global SWF Annual Report 2024. But they invested less, and less often, than in 2022. The challenging macro environment – including geopolitical conflicts and volatile markets – led to…

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ESAs Add More Ideas into SFDR Mix

In a bid to simplify the regime, the European Supervisory Authorities run the risk of adding complexity, regulatory specialists say. 

The European Supervisory Authorities’ (ESAs) proposal for a revamped Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) may seek to clarify the regime, but lawyers are concerned it could make it diverge from other jurisdictional rules, creating disruption for fund managers.  The European Banking Authority (EBA), European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA), and…

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Quarter of Companies Align with 1.5°C Pathway

CDP’s latest assessment of climate transition plan disclosures shows a “significant and much needed stride” towards corporate accountability.

Corporates are increasingly on the right track towards enhanced transparency and accountability on climate transition plans, a new industry survey has shown. In its latest analysis, environmental disclosure platform CDP found that one in four (5,909) of the 23,200 companies using its framework claimed to have 1.5°C-aligned climate transition plans…

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IGGiQ Targets Level Playing Field for UK Pension Funds

Data-driven platform seeks to empower mid-tier trustees and sponsors with rollout of ESG-focused module.

The information shortfalls facing smaller pension schemes when developing sustainable investment strategies are the inspiration for Independent Governance Group’s (IGG) recently released IGGiQ tool, which aims to improve ESG data integration and management. The UK-based pensions trusteeship and governance services provider has partnered with ESG data and investment solutions firm…

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