Janus Henderson Investors CEO: ‘Companies will fail’ in higher interest rate environment

According to Janus Henderson Investors CEO Ali Dibadj and Matt Peron, global head of solutions, interest rates will likely remain higher than their pre-pandemic level for quite some time. ECB cuts interest rates for the first time since 2019 This means that companies will be forced to “work harder to compete for investor capital”, and some will be more successful than others in doing so. As a result, the onus will fall on investors to take a “more rigorous approach” to security selection, they argued, with the spotlight being on deep industry knowledge. Dibadj and Peron called o…

Affinity Equity Partners receives bids for $800m sale of Island Hospital

Malaysia’s IHH Healthcare and Sunway are among three contenders in the race to acquire Penang-based Island Hospital from pan-Asian private equity firm Affinity Equity Partners, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. 

The hospital is being valued at over $800m, and a second round of bids is expected soon. According to a WSJ source, the third bidder is an Asia-based sponsor with experience in the healthcare sector. 

A deal with Affinity Equity Partners is expected to complete by Q3 2024. 

 Island Hospital, established in 1996, is a 600-bed facility offering specialty services including cardiology, clinical oncology, pediatrics and plastic surgery. It also has a medical-tourism program serving patients across Southeast Asia. 

IHH Healthcare, one of the largest global healthcare networks, operates more than 80 hospitals in 10 countries, including China, Turkey, India and the Netherlands. Sunway, a Malaysian conglomerate, runs three hospitals in Malaysia with a combined capacity of 1,730 beds. 

The sale of Island Hospital, originally planned for 2020 but postponed due to the pandemic, has gained renewed traction following the $1.2bn sale of Ramsay Sime Darby Health Care to TPG-backed Columbia Asia in November. 

Previous similarly sized transactions in the healthcare sector include the 2019 acquisition of Columbia Asia Hospitals in Southeast Asia by TPG and Malaysian conglomerate Hong Leong Group, valued at $1.2bn. 

Affinity Equity Partners manages $14bn in assets across five offices in Asia and has investments in 11 countries, including South Korea’s Shinhan Financial Group, Indonesian video-streaming service Vidio, Australian food-and-beverage company Prime Foods and New Zealand’s Tegel Foods.  

Carlyle launches evergreen PE strategy for non-US

Global private investment firm Carlyle has launched an evergreen private equity strategy, Carlyle AlpInvest Private Markets SICAV, through its private equity unit AlpInvest. 

CAPM SICAV targets non-US investors. 

According to a statement, CAPM SICAV aims to provide “immediate, diversified, and continuous” access to global private equity buyout markets through allocations across AlpInvest’s secondary and co-investment fund opportunities, as well as exposure to primary fund investments. 

Ruulke Bagijn, Head of Global Investment Solutions, said that Carlyle had “constructed and managed similar portfolios for some of the largest private equity investors for over 20 years, committing over $95bn since 2000”. 

The launch follows that of Carlyle AlpInvest Private Markets Fund, a US-registered fund available to US investors focused on secondaries, last year. 

Global strategy consulting firm Stax opens London office

Global strategy consulting firm Stax has opened a new office in London, following the January hiring of Phil Dunne as managing director to lead the firm’s UK and EMEA practice. 

Stax specialises in commercial due diligence, value creation and exit planning for private equity firms, PE-backed companies, hedge funds and investment banks, across software/technology, healthcare, business services, industrial, consumer/retail and education. 

In a statement, Stax said it aims to double its headcount by 2025 and is hiring across levels with a focus on senior executives with healthcare and consumer experience. 

Blue Earth provides $16m loan to agricultural financing firm Samunnati

Swiss impact investor Blue Earth Capital has announced a $16m (€14.9m) loan to Samunnati, an agricultural financing firm based in Chennai, India, according to a report by Impact Investor.

Samunnati offers financing, market linkages, and advisory services to over 6,000 farmer collectives and 3,500 agricultural enterprises across 28 Indian states. 

Founded in 2015 by Urs Wietlisbach, co-founder of Partners Group, Blue Earth Capital is owned by Swiss non-profit Blue Earth Foundation. 

Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell: Nvidia, Ferrari, Planet Fitness, Cinemark and more

GDP Per Capita, by G7 Country (2019-2029F)

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June 24, 2024 Graphics/Design:

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

GDP Per Capita Projections for the G7

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

GDP per capita takes the total economic output of a country in a year, and divides it by the total population, providing a measure of a country’s economic performance and living standards on a per person basis.

In this graphic, we’ve visualized GDP per capita for G7 nations, from 2019 to 2029 (forecasted). All figures come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and are as of April 2024.

Data and Key Takeaways

The data we used to create this graphic can also be found in the table below.

GDP per capita
(current USD)Canada
🇨🇦France
🇫🇷Germany
🇩🇪Italy
🇮🇹Japan
🇯🇵UK
🇬🇧U.S.
🇺🇸 2019$46,431$41,925$46,810$33,628$40,548$42,713$65,505 2020$43,573$40,529$46,712$31,789$40,172$40,246$64,367 2021$52,521$45,161$51,461$36,402$40,114$46,704$70,996 2022$55,613$42,306$48,756$35,043$34,005$45,730$77,192 2023$53,548$46,001$52,727$38,326$33,806$49,099$81,632 2024F$54,866$47,359$54,291$39,580$33,138$51,075$85,373 2025F$57,021$48,631$56,439$40,701$34,922$53,627$87,978 2026F$58,907$50,143$58,472$41,612$36,643$56,759$90,903 2027F$60,729$51,571$60,264$42,604$38,065$59,870$94,012 2028F$62,636$53,040$61,965$43,835$39,820$63,279$97,231 2029F$64,653$54,388$63,551$45,096$40,949$66,911$100,580

From this data, we can see that the U.S. has managed a very strong post-COVID recovery relative to its G7 peers. While Canada also saw a strong resurgence in 2021 and 2022, its GDP per capita actually fell in 2023.

This is attributed to the country’s high levels of immigration in 2023, which helped boost population by 3.2% (1,271,000 people). Because this increase outpaced economic growth, Canada’s per capita output decreased.

Looking towards the future, the IMF believes that the U.S. will reach a GDP per capita of $101,000 by 2029, which is significantly higher than any other G7 nation. It also believes that the UK will perform well in the second half of this decade, climbing from fourth to second place among this peer group of countries.

Learn More About GDP from Visual Capitalist

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Ranked: The Top 6 Economies by Share of Global GDP (1980-2024).

Markets Brief: US Inflation in the Spotlight Again

Insights into key market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.

The Morningstar US Market index rose 0.67% with lower-growth sectors such as financials and energy typically outpacing companies expected to generate more rapid profit growth.

The fixed income markets showed small movement in yields, credit spreads or expectations for future interest rates. Government bonds continue to offer high real (i.e. net of inflation) yields for investors relative to that available in the recent past. It is not surprising that investors are continuing to ‘pile into bond funds’ in the words of Morningstar analysts Adam Sabban and Ryan Jackson in their latest fund flow report.

Investors Keen on Corporate Bonds

Investors are also enthusiastic about corporate bonds, despite the higher expected correlation with equity prices and unusually skinny credit spreads. As ever with fixed income investing, it is important to be clear about why you own the investment as confusion on this point can lead to expensive mistakes during periods of market volatility. You can access Morningstar’s latest fund flow report here.

Story Stocks Plummet

The market was not quiet everywhere with some investors experiencing a painful reminder of what happens when investing is divorced from financial analysis and instead used as a proxy for a political or cultural view. Both GameStop (GME) (down 17%) and Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) (down 25%) are example of companies whose owners appear to be are more focused on supporting a view rather than maximizing long-term returns. To help investors avoid these situations, Morningstar Wealth’s Danny Noonan unpacks this challenges of mixing politics and investing here.

Beyond Nvidia

Market leader Nvidia (NVDA) fell 4% over the week having briefly become the most valuable company listed on the US markets. Following extraordinary growth in the adoption of generative AI over the last 18 months, this topic continues to dominate the minds of investors. While Nvidia has become the default way of investing in this area, Morningstar’s technology equity analysts William Kerwin and Brian Colello believe that there are other companies that should also be considered by investors wishing to access this industry. Their report is available here.

PCE Inflation Due

Inflation is back on the menu next week with the Fed’s preferred measure of price change: the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), expected to show a further decline in inflation to an annualised rate of 2.6% in

YouGov Share Price Plunge: Which Funds Are Exposed?

Shares in the polling and analytics company YouGov (YOU) have taken a battering after a profit warning spooked investors away from the company last week.

The London-based market research and data firm, which is well known for its political polling, has plunged over 44% to £4.47 over the last five days. Its market capitalisation is now around £507 million.

But how are the stock’s backers reacting to the disappointing news?

It is actually difficult to tell. YouGov is something of an elephant in the room in the City, and fund houses with the biggest exposures to it seem reluctant to comment.

Nevertheless, some are talking. John Moore, senior investment manager at RBC Brewin Dolphin, said that, from now on, YouGov will have to focus on rebuilding trust around its longer-term growth plans.

“YouGov is a data business that should be a long-term beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI) but in the short term it has been broadsided by declines in its fast-turnaround research services,” he told Morningstar.

“This will come as a shock to shareholders, who were guided toward high levels of visibility in the previous statement, and wider observers who might think that, in such an election-heavy year, the business should be well placed.

“From here, rebuilding trust around the longer-term growth narrative and executing on areas like the Consumer Panel business in 2025 will be key to the share price recovering.

But according to Laurence Hulse, investment director at Dowgate Wealth, the fund sold out of the polling company months ago. The fund’s performance has been a mixed bag, recording negative performance of -3.02% in 2023, although its year-to-date return has picked up to 9.06%.

The Athelney Trust (ATY) held a 2.4% exposure, as of March 31, 2024.

The trust, which invests solely in UK small cap companies, has seen its share price trail the Morningstar UK Small Cap Index, with both reporting -2.8% and 8.9% over one year, respectively.

London-based asset management firm Liontrust also has a significant stake in YouGov.

The polling company features in both Liontrust’s Morningstar Bronze-Medal rated UK Smaller Companies Fund, as well as the Liontrust GF Special Situations Fund at 2.36% and 1.8%, respectively. Both funds have experienced outflows over the last year.

The Liontrust UK Smaller Companies fund has seen redemptions of more than £149 million, while Liontrust GF Special Situations witnessed outflows of more than £63 million.

However, the Liontrust GF Special

13 Questions for Redwheel’s James Johnstone

In this series of short profiles, we ask leading fund managers to defend their investment strategies, reveal the biggest risks to the bull market, tell us their unpopular investment opinions, and discuss what they’d never buy.

This week our interviewee is James Johnstone, Portfolio Manager of the Morningstar 5-star rated Redwheel Next Generation Emerging Markets Equity Fund.

Describe Your Investment Strategy

We seek outgrowth at a reasonable price over the next 10 to 20 years. For example, I first researched Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) as a $22 billion (£17.4 billion) company in 2001. Its market capitalisation is now $675 billion.

What Are 2024’s Biggest Investment Opportunities?

The return to real assets and the recognition the world has finite resources in commodities and people. Emerging markets provide the solutions to the world’s problems. They meet much of the world’s commodity needs and have younger populations with strong workforces, which is why our strategy focuses on emerging and frontier markets.

What Are The Biggest Risks to The Current Bull Run?

Any increase in geopolitical tensions between the West and a China/Russia/Iran-led alliance may be damaging for the global economy.

Who is the Most Inspiring Person You’ve Worked With?

Robert Friedland. I have invested in several of Robert’s mining operations over the last three decades. He has always been at the very forefront of thought leadership on how the world can transition to clean energy and combat climate change. I also owe a lot to Philip Ehrmann who was my inspirational boss at Gartmore and taught me a lot about emerging markets. 

What (if Any) Investments Fit the ‘Buy and Hold Forever’ Category?

Well, I wish I could get in my time machine and say TSMC from 2002. I think it will continue to dominate the world of semiconductors for years. For decades to come, I do not think you can get a better investment than a tonne of copper.

What Would You Never Invest in?

Never say never, but I am not a big believer in crypto.

How Worried Should Active Managers be?

Active managers should always be worried – it’s their job! I think there will always be a role for the human brain versus a machine. Everyone – be they quant machines or real people –hates the bottom and loves the top of every cycle. It is just fear and greed. Will computers of the future ignore those emotions? Ironically, active long-term managers should be able to