Cut off from the West, Putin says almost 40% of Russian trade turnover is now in rubles

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin said countries “friendly to Russia” were the ones that deserved special attention. He added that Russia would seek to boost the share of settlements conducted in the currencies of BRICS countries, referring to an economic coalition of emerging markets which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Putin said payments for Russian exports in “so-called ‘toxic’ currencies of non-friendly states” had halved over the last year. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin gestures as he delivers a speech during the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg on June 7, 2024. Anton Vaganov | Afp | Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that nearly 40% of the country’s trade turnover is now in rubles as the share conducted in dollars, euros and other “non-friendly” Western currencies has fallen away.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin said countries “friendly to Russia” were the ones that deserved special attention as they will define the future of the global economy, “and they already make up three-quarters of our trade volume.”

He added that Russia would seek to boost the share of settlements conducted in the currencies of BRICS countries, referring to an economic coalition of emerging markets which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Putin said payments for Russian exports in “so-called ‘toxic’ currencies of non-friendly states” had halved over the last year.

“With that, the share of the ruble in import and export operations is increasing, now standing at almost 40%,” Putin said, according to a translation.

Russia’s president detailed plans for a major overhaul of the country’s domestic financial market, including plans to double the value of the Russian stock market by the end of the decade, reduce imports and boost investment in fixed assets.

His comments come as the Kremlin leverages SPIEF to court new relationships with countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa.

The West has sought to cut off Russia’s $2 trillion economy in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Yet Russia’s economy is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies this year, despite several rounds of international sanctions.

In its World Economic Outlook in April, the International Monetary Fund said it expected Russia to grow 3.2% in 2024,

CNBC

Permira makes substantial investment in PharmaCord

A company backed by global private investment firm Permira has made a significant investment in PharmaCord, a provider of patient services for the pharmaceutical industry, which will continue to be led by founder and CEO Nitin Sahney.

Both Sahney and the existing management team will also remain as significant investors in the business, although financial terms of the transaction have not been disclosed.

According to a press statement, PharmaCord “serves as a commercialisation partner for life sciences organisations providing a comprehensive range of solutions aimed at support the patient journey for specialty medications through a range of services that raise awareness, facilitate access to treatment, improve affordability and promote therapy adherence”.

The deal, which is subject to customary regulatory approvals, is expected to close by Q4 2024.

Centerview Partners and Willkie Farr & Gallagher advised PharmaCord. Jefferies, Leerink Partners and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom advised Permira.

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: GameStop, Lyft, Vail Resorts and more

How Homicide Rates by U.S. State Have Changed Since 2012

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June 7, 2024 Article/Editing:

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How Homicide Rates by State Have Changed Since 2012

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Are the United States getting more dangerous or more safe? The answer partially depends on your metric of choice.

For example, by examining homicide rates by state from 2012 to 2022, it can be seen that rates have increased almost across the board. That said, they are still lower than rates seen in the 1980s and 1990s.

This graphic from USAFacts examines the age-adjusted homicide rates by state from 2012 to 2022, and how they’ve changed. It uses CDC data available for 46 states, with no data available for New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

Comparing States by Homicide Rates

From 2012 to 2022, homicide rates increased in every state with available data except for Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. Here are the rates for all 46 available states as well as their 10-year change in percentage:

StateHomicide rate
(2022, age-adjusted per 100,000)10-Year Change
(2012–2022) Mississippi20.7+103% Louisiana19.8+64% Alabama14.9+71% New Mexico14.5+120% Missouri12.8+75% Arkansas11.8+39% South Carolina11.8+44% Maryland11.4+61% Georgia11.3+74% Tennessee11.0+49% Illinois10.9+68% Alaska10.2+104% North Carolina9.2+56% Arizona9.0+45% Pennsylvania8.9+53% Michigan8.6+10% Ohio8.5+49% Indiana8.4+53% Kentucky8.3+48% Oklahoma8.3+14% Nevada7.8+73% Virginia7.8+90% Texas7.6+49% Colorado7.2+85% Florida7.2+11% Delaware7.0+1% South Dakota6.9+188% West Virginia6.2+5% Wisconsin6.0+71% California5.9+13% Kansas5.8+53% Montana5.4+125% Washington5.4+64% Oregon5.1+82% New York4.5+22% Connecticut4.3-2.3% Minnesota3.8+90% New Jersey3.8-20.8% Nebraska3.7+6% Hawaii3.0+100% Iowa2.9+38% Idaho2.7+23% Maine2.6+8% Massachusetts2.5+25% Utah2.2+29% Rhode Island2.0-33.3%
Note: Age-adjusted data helps to compare health data over time or between groups more fairly by accounting for the age differences in populations.

Mississippi had the largest increase in homicide rate,

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Take Five: Modi Feels the Heat

A selection of the major stories impacting ESG investors, in five easy pieces. 

Climate wasn’t high on the ballot in India’s election, but Modi must soon face uncomfortable truths on coal.

Modi feels the heat – Conducted in record temperatures, the world’s biggest exercise in democracy dealt a blow to the ego of incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but it’s less clear how the outcome of India’s general election will impact its net zero transition. Stock prices were down this week on the assumption that reliance on coalition partners would slow the pace of the infrastructure investment plans of Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The impact of the election on India’s climate policy might be less significant, for a number of reasons. First, other priorities regularly topped polls of voter concerns, notably inflation and unemployment, although this has evolved recently, partly due to increased instances of climate-induced physical impacts, from landslides to floods to severe crop losses. Second, both the BJP and its leading opponent, Congress, are strongly committed to India’s continued adoption of renewables, albeit via different means – with the challenger party promising in its manifesto a new green transition fund and more resources for India’s National Adaptation Fund. A third reason, which leads on from the first two, is that neither major party has been forced to properly address India’s biggest climate problem – vast and rising emissions from coal. Indeed, current policy is for domestic production to increase up to 2040 to reduce reliance on imports. Coal – and Modi’s close relationships with the controversial Adani Group – notwithstanding, the BJP’s record on solar and hydrogen investments, and fossil fuel subsidy reductions is impressive. But regardless of the make-up of the coalition, India’s next government will need to up the ante to have a hope of meeting even its existing climate commitments, such as installing 500GW of renewables, which will handle 50% of electricity demand, by 2030.

Down, not out – Support for climate-related resolutions at the AGMs of US firms has been closely watched this proxy season for further signs of a “stewardship depression” witnessed since 2021. But climate votes only tell part of the story, with a high number of social-themed filings also vying for investor backing. These include four shareholder proposals seeking more action and transparency on pay, working conditions and racial equity by Walmart, the world’s largest private employer. Prior to

Where to Invest in the Bond Market After the ECB Cut

Eurozone bond yields rose modestly after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its June 6 meeting, as markets adjusted to the uncertain future path of monetary policy. Fixed-income managers explain where investors should be focusing their portfolios now after the first interest rate cut in five years.

“After the ECB announcement, we observed a slight rise in bond yields across the maturity curve,” Giacomo Calef, country head for Italy at NS Partners. 

“This indicates that, despite Christine Lagarde’s confidence that inflation will come down, the process of normalising monetary policy may be longer than expected.”

Immediately after the announcement of the rate cut, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Italian BTP rose to 3.87% from 3.83% and the German Bund with the same maturity rose to 2.56% from 2.53%.

Bonds: What to Look For Now 

Generally, when interest rates fall, government bond yields tend to fall and the price of outstanding bonds rise. But the market reaction was relatively muted to the first cut since 2019. The focus was more on the upward revision of inflation estimates, which could make the central bank more cautious in cutting rates for the rest of 2024.

“The cut is balanced by hawkish components such as the upward revision of growth and inflation estimates (which will therefore take longer to come back towards target), as well as the absence of any reference to embarking on a more continuous path of reducing the cost of money,” said Alberto Biscaro, portfolio manager at Quaestio SGR. 

Staying Liquid Now Pays Less 

Investors need to consider two factors, experts say. The first is liquidity, because income from deposit accounts and other money market instruments is set to fall as a result of falling interest rates. 

Some experts suggest reducing liquidity in the portfolio as holding liquid assets has become less appealing:

“With the rate-cutting cycle in eurozone underway, a key priority for investors is to manage their liquidity needs. Current returns on cash, while attractive, will not be around for much longer,”  says Dean Turner, chief eurozone and UK economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a June 6 note. 

“We favour reducing holdings of cash and cash-like investments in favour of those that can offer more durable returns, such as a portfolio of quality bonds,” 

Yield Curve Inverted, But No Recession 

The other factor to consider is the inverted yield curve in

US Q2 GDP Nowcast Eases, But Modest Pickup Over Q1 Is Expected

Recent economic estimates suggest US growth has slowed compared with previous estimates, but today’s revised GDP nowcast for the second quarter still points to a modest pickup in output over Q1.

The median estimate for a set of projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com indicates output rising 1.9% in Q2. If accurate, growth will strengthen, albeit modestly, relative to Q1’s sluggish 1.3% rise.

Today’s median nowcast marks a slight downgrade from the previous update on May 31, when Q2 growth was projected to rise 2.0%.

Some economists advise that consumers have turned cautious on spending, which may be a warning sign for the economy. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan reports that the growth rate of spending has slowed, based on credit cards data. The 3.5% rise this year marks a sharp deceleration from the comparable 10% growth rate for the year-earlier pace, he notes.

“We’ve got to keep the consumer in the game in the U.S. economy, because [they’re] such a big part of it,” Moynihan tells CNBC. “They’re getting a little more tenuous, and that is due to everything going on around them.”

Yet new survey data for May paint a brighter profile, based on the US Composite PMI, a GDP proxy. This index points to the fastest growth rate in more than two years.

The bond market, however, seems to be pricing in softer growth lately. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply in recent days. One factor weighing on yields: this week’s news that US job openings fell to the lowest level in over three years – a possible early warning of softer economic conditions ahead.

Overall, the case for expecting a sharp acceleration in output in Q2 has faded–a scenario that looked more likely a few weeks ago. On the other hand, the current nowcast suggest that while growth isn’t taking off again, the path ahead still appears set to deliver a modest if unimpressive improvement vs. Q1.

How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report

When is an Asset Manager an ESG Ratings Provider?

Lewis Saffin, Associate at Herbert Smith Freehills, highlights the key takeaways for asset managers from incoming ESG rating regulation in Europe.

Having the support of the European Council and the responsible European Parliament committee, the final compromise text in relation to a regulation on ESG rating activities (the regulation) is expected to start applying 18 months after its entry into force following formal approval and publication. Once live, the regulation will represent the first compulsory rules governing ESG rating activities in Europe.

ESG rating providers are the primary focus of the proposed regulation. However, alternative investment fund managers, UCITS management companies and portfolio managers which use ESG ratings for their products and services carried out in or marketed into the EU (collectively, asset managers) may be in scope if they procure these ratings from third parties or generate them using proprietary ESG methodology.

Asset managers should consider:

whether they are subject to regulatory obligations as an ‘ESG rating provider’ for the purposes of the regulation; and whether they are subject to disclosure obligations as the provider or user of ESG ratings. Can an asset manager be an ‘ESG rating provider’?

The regulation defines an ESG rating provider as “a legal person whose occupation includes the issuance and publication or distribution of ESG ratings on a professional basis”.

ESG ratings are broadly defined and could potentially include any sort of ESG scoring system.

As such, any asset manager which uses a proprietary methodology to generate ESG scores would potentially be issuing ESG ratings and fall within the definition of an ‘ESG rating provider’. However, there are certain exemptions from the substantive licensing, organisational and methodological obligations for ESG rating providers which could be availed of by asset managers.

Relevant exemptions for asset managers

The main carve-outs from the regulation which will be relevant to asset managers relate to:

private ESG ratings which are “not intended for public disclosure or for distribution”; ESG ratings issued by regulated financial undertakings that are used exclusively for internal purposes or for providing in-house or intragroup financial services or products; and disclosures mandated by certain provisions within Regulation (EU) 2019/2088 (the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation; SFDR) and Regulation (EU) 2020/852 (Taxonomy Regulation).

Moreover, where an asset manager issues an ESG rating which is both (i) incorporated in a product or a service which is already regulated under EU law; and (ii) disclosed to

abrdn investments CEO Buehlmann: Closing GARS was ‘difficult’ but it was ‘not right anymore’

At its peak, GARS was one of the largest funds in the IA Target Absolute Return (TAR) sector, reaching £26.8bn assets under management. When it closed, the fund held £857m in assets, according to data from FE fundinfo. It was decided that the once-mighty fund would cease operating as a standalone product and instead merged into the company’s diversified asset funds. Buehlmann said that while it was a tough decision, the macroeconomic backdrop had changed so much that GARS was no longer a competitive offering. “We were convinced that this was not the right product any longer for the…