Take Five: Twin Peaks

A selection of the major stories impacting ESG investors, in five easy pieces. 

Developed countries have belatedly reached a target for climate finance, only to be set a new one for nature.

Ten years after – It might have taken them a little more than a decade, but at last they got there. Developed nations mobilised US$115.9 billion of climate finance for developing countries in 2022, it was revealed this week, exceeding for the first time the US$100 billion annual level set in Copenhagen in 2009. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), last year saw a record 30% annual rise in climate finance, meaning the target – originally unveiled at COP 15 – was reached two years late. The total includes more than US$20 billion in attributable private finance, as well as bilateral and multilateral public sector funding, plus export credits. Importantly, adaptation finance accounted for US$32.4 billion of the total – three times the 2016 level. Discussions on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance for the post-2025 period, which made little progress at COP28, should progress next week’s Bonn Climate Conference, where the agenda will also include carbon credits, adaptation finance and the Global Stocktake, ahead of COP29. In anticipation of the NCQG, the OECD released an analysis recommending use of public sector interventions to directly or indirectly finance climate action. But measures to support the goals of the Paris Agreement must now sit alongside those needed to realise the objectives of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). At a Nairobi summit that concluded yesterday, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity called for investments of at least US$200 billion a year from all sources, and for reform of US$500 billion in harmful subsidies to achieve the GBF’s Goal D: invest and collaborate for nature. These and other recommendations will be discussed at COP16 in Colombia in October.

Gap analysis – A lack of progress on gender equality in the workplace has been underlined by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in a report reflecting fewer jobs and lower pay for women, especially in low-income countries. According to an update to the ILO’s annual World Employment and Social Outlook, the ‘jobs gap’ – which measures the number of persons without a job but who want to work – stands at 22.8% for women in low-income countries, versus 15.3% for men. This contrasts with a gap

US Q1 GDP Revised Down, But Q2 Nowcasts See Firmer Growth

US economic growth rose a modest 1.3% in the first quarter, a softer increase vs. the government’s initial 1.6% estimate. The revised data reflects a sluggish pace of growth and the second straight quarterly downshift. But the current nowcast for Q2 suggests that output will stabilize if not strengthen, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

US economic activity is expected to increase 2.0% in the April-through-June period, according to the median nowcast. If correct, the advance will mark a solid rebound in growth over Q1’s 1.3% rise and the first quarterly acceleration since Q3:2023.

Today’s revised median Q2 nowcast is in line with recent estimates. More than a week ago, for instance, we reported a median nowcast of 1.9%.

As for Q1’s weaker print, the key factor is related to a downside revision in consumer spending, notes Wells Fargo’s economics team:

In the initial estimate, goods outlays were reported to have contracted at a scant 0.4% annualized rate. All the weakness in the initial estimate was on the durable goods side with non-durable good spending flat. Today’s revisions marked down those spending estimates significantly. Goods spending is now estimated to have contracted at an 1.9% annualized rate including a 4.1% contraction in durable goods outlays and a 0.6% annualized drop in non-durable goods spending. These revisions are consistent with downward revisions to Q1 retail sales, and suggests we’ll see some revision to monthly durable goods spending.

Recent data has highlighted that consumer spending has been softening. Retail sales in April, for example, were flat after two straight solid monthly gains.

Given that consumer spending accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, the weak retail sales data raises questions about the outlook for the remainder of Q2. All of which goes back to the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes over the past two years.

“The impact of the Fed’s tight interest rate policy is clearly visible in the first quarter GDP report,” says Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica.

For the moment, it’s not obvious that the weaker Q1 data will spill over into Q2, or so today’s GDP nowcast suggests. The incoming data for May may determine if the relatively upbeat nowcasts for the current quarter are overly optimistic.

How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report

Exxon Investors Signal Growing Ill Will

Shareholder dissent over “governance failure” expected to intensify, after dip in director support at AGM.  

ExxonMobil breathed a sigh of relief on 29 May when its nominated directors were re-elected, but shareholder dissatisfaction will continue to be felt.  The oil and gas major’s annual general meeting (AGM) was widely anticipated, with several shareholders pre-declaring their intention to vote against the appointment of company directors, in…

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US Solar and International Public Partnership adviser Amber to merge with US asset manager

Subject to regulatory approval, the merger will create a global alternatives investment platform with assets under management of around $35bn and support Amber’s expansion in the US and globally.  In a stock exchange notice on Thursday (30 May), USF said London-based Amber Infrastructure Investment Advisor will continue to act as its manager, with no changes to the management of USF.  US Solar Fund appoints manager after shareholders pass new investment policy The management of INPP will also not experience any changes, with the Amber team continuing to lead on all infrastructure i…

Shell vote highlights asset managers’ climate divide

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Can the Fed ignore political pressures as the presidential election approaches?

The central banks’ independence means that we entrust control of monetary policy to unelected technocrats, and grant operational autonomy to the central bank. It is a way of ring-fencing monetary policy from the electoral cycle, with its potentially inflationary consequences. Without this independence, politicians might be tempted to stimulate the economy to increase their chances of re-election. Deep Dive: Divergence of MPC votes proves BoE’s avoidance of groupthink It is now well documented that, in his bid for a second term in 1972, Richard Nixon put pressure on the then Fede…

Ground Rents Income postpones accounts following leasehold reform

The trust will have until 30 September 2024 to publish its 30 September 2023 accounts, it revealed in a stock exchange notice today (31 May). GRIO received the extension following the introduction of the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024, which passed on 24 May 2024. Ground Rents Income to propose ‘orderly’ wind-up and revised continuation vote The legislation is part of the government’s work to reform the UK’s leasehold and freehold system. As a result, market activity was paused in November 2023 due to the government’s consultation on the Act, which negatively impacted va…

Japan’s $62bn support for yen provides little reprieve

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Deep Dive: Consumer Duty is already improving standards but challenges remain

Several firms have either changed or completely overhauled some of their processes, whether in relation to marketing materials and documents, fees or reporting. One of the most high profile examples was St James’s Place, which last year revealed a complete U-turn on its long-contested exit fees and set out plans for their removal for new clients starting from 2025. The wealth management giant also set aside £426m in March 2024 to refund clients who were charged for ongoing advice but never received it. Deep Dive: Tight credit spreads on US corporates heightens domestic volatility risk…

From Tango to Salsa – or Silent Disco?

Transmission mechanisms hold the key to adapting asset allocation models to dual materiality, contends Joseph Naayem, Managing Partner, Kalmus Capital.

In the good old days of single materiality, investors could afford to incrementally take a linear approach to how they integrated sustainability into their decision-making processes. As we enter an age of double materiality, allocators all along the investment value chain may find themselves having to go back to first principles and rethink their entire approaches to asset allocation, portfolio construction, fund and security selection and engagement.

If we separate the definition of sustainable investing into ESG integration, or ‘outside-in’, where the focus is on how the outside world affects financial risks and opportunities, versus impact investing, or ‘inside-out’, where the main focus is on how economic activity affects the outside world, we can single out an important parameter that had never held much importance in allocation models: transmission mechanisms.

The art of investing is based on how we allocate risk and accordingly deploy the appropriate resources to oversee it. In the old world of single materiality, relative size was everything: the larger the exposure, the greater the capital at risk, the greater the importance, the more resources, time, fees, effort and sophistication it deserved. It is little wonder that the maturity of sustainable finance, mirroring typical allocation models, started with listed equites, then fixed income before percolating through private markets and finally touching hedge funds last. This assumption – that size equals importance – has underpinned every capital allocation model to date.

Differing transition mechanisms

As impact takes on more importance in a dual materiality world, size is no longer the overriding determinant of importance, be it assets under management, relative portfolio weight, value at risk exposure or revenue line. Each asset class, investment strategy or fund structure has a different transmission mechanism that traces the causality of how capital can influence outcomes rather than just be aligned to them. This causality extends beyond the basic difference between primary investments and secondary market transactions. The level of ownership, levers of influence, credibility and knowledge when engaging on specific topics as well as level of concentration and holding period all play a pivotal role in enabling fund managers to shape outcomes on the ground.

Regulations such as Europe’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive are laying the foundations for how dual materiality is measured and reported, but like many other disclosure-related regulations