No ‘cop on the beat’: Why the SEC may deny new ether ETFs this month

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to make a key decision on approving ether exchange-traded funds next week.

But it will likely fail due to a lack of an over-arching regulatory framework for all cryptocurrencies, according to Ric Edelman, head of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals.

“I think that there’s going to be another delay, which is frankly, not really bad news,” Edelman told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

Edelman, an investor and personal finance author, thinks there needs to be an emphasis on regulations to protect people from crypto scams. He notes current laws are more than a half century old and are not built for digital technology.

“Without any cop on the beat, it’s forcing investors to go on their own outside of the investment advisory community because the community can’t help them because we don’t know what the rules are. And they’re ending up in scams and frauds,” he said. “The sad irony is that [SEC Chair Gary] Gensler is claiming to be wanting to protect the consumer. But his refusal to write regulation is actually harming the consumer rather than helping.”

Bitwise Asset Management’s Matt Hougan is also pushing for new rules.

“80-year-old securities laws don’t fit neatly into this world of digital assets, crypto and 21st century technology,” the firm’s chief investment officer said. “Ultimately, I think everyone wants the same thing. They wanted a safe, secure platform where investors are protected, and innovation is protected.”

Hougan notes Bitwise has its own application for a spot ethereum ETF and is hopeful about the future.

“We’ve entered the ETF era for crypto. We’ve seen the bitcoin ETFs come to market. We’ve seen the great things they’ve done for investors — lowering costs, improving regulation, improving sort of safety, security and peace of mind.,” Hougan said. “I think we will get there on ethereum as well.”

The two ether ETF proposals, submitted by VanEck and ARK Investments/21Shares, are set to be approved or denied this month.

Disclaimer

CNBC

Some consumers are punting big purchases like pools and mattresses

Some consumers are pushing off making big purchases for things like furniture or pools as they deal with high interest rates and pesky inflation. That can have wide-reaching impacts for everyone from the average shopper to the Federal Reserve in this unique economic moment. Ordini’s Best Fiberglass Pools contractors work to install a pool, which the company says have dramatically increased in sales due to COVID-19 fears, in Gilbertsville, Pennsylvania, April 26, 2021. Rachel Wisniewski | Reuters

Americans are kicking the can down the road on some more-costly, traditionally financed purchases as elevated inflation and interest rates bite.

Corporate executives this earnings season have lamented that customers are disinterested in shelling out on big-ticket items for their bedrooms, backyards and everywhere in between. It comes at a pivotal moment for the national economy: as the average Joe has been contending with a double-whammy of high prices and borrowing costs, while economists and policymakers are trying to gauge the impact this has made.

This matters because it adds to a growing picture of consumer spending finally slowing down, as experts long anticipated. That means the Federal Reserve may get the sign it’s been waiting for that interest rate hikes have had their intended effects of tightening the economy, which could be good news for investors and consumers.

“The consumer’s purchasing power is limited,” Sleep Number CEO Shelly Ibach told analysts late last month. “As a result, consumers continue to scrutinize their spending and make near-term decisions based primarily on need, price and perceived value. And they are deferring higher-ticket, durable purchases.”

Ibach said the mattress industry is in a “historic recession,” with sales likely to continue to decline after two already tough years. The Minneapolis-based company lost more per share and recorded lower revenue than analysts polled by FactSet had anticipated in the first quarter.

Sleep Number isn’t alone. Executives across the consumer arena have been preparing for — and, in some cases, seeing — a slowdown over the last several months. Data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, a partner of the National Retail Federation, shows American adults have been increasingly delaying spending in areas like home improvement and electronics compared with before the pandemic.

“Consumers are still spending, but the sense that we get now is that they’re being a little bit more careful,”

CNBC

US companies find borrowing conditions improving as markets rally

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Book Bits: 18 May 2024

A Map of the New Normal: How Inflation, War, and Sanctions Will Change Your World Forever
Jeff Rubin
Adapted essay from book via The Globe and Mail
The world is engulfed in an ever-escalating global trade war. Virtually every day, new sanctions are being imposed, triggering reciprocal actions against Western goods.
Where will this lead? Can the West still win such wars, as it has done before? If not, what are the consequences of losing?
Along with sanctions has risen a new world order in which the United States and its NATO allies can no longer use their economic and military power to unilaterally dictate terms to the rest of the world.

Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
Tom Chivers
Review via The Wall Street Journal
First articulated in the 18th century by a hobbyist-mathematician seeking to reason backward from effects to cause, Bayes’ theorem spent the better part of two centuries struggling for recognition and respect. Yet today, argues Tom Chivers in “Everything Is Predictable,” it can be seen as “perhaps the most important single equation in history.” It drives the logic of spam filters, artificial intelligence and possibly our own brains. It may soon help us work through tricky social problems like vaccine hesitancy. Once you start to look for it, Mr. Chivers says, you start to see Bayes’ theorem everywhere.
At its core, the theorem provides a quantitative method for getting incrementally wiser by continuously updating what you think you know—your prior beliefs, which initially might be subjective—with new information. Your refined belief becomes the new prior, and the process repeats.

The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy
Ryan A. Bourne
Review via Reason.com
Prices are guardians of scarce resources, ensuring that these are allocated to their most valuable uses. Prosperity results from the encouragement given to the production of goods and services that people desire most.
There is someone else who sees the price system for its beauty and would like to protect it from continued government interferences: the Cato Institute’s Ryan Bourne. He has an excellent new book, The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy. It includes 24 essays written by some of the best economists in the business, each addressing a different aspect of today’s war on prices—the widespread and counterproductive ways governments are trying to control inflation or particular prices.

The Coming Decline:

How long can the good times keep rolling in markets?

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Divesting shares: does it work?

Calls for divestment are once again reverberating across the globe. Does it work?

Selling holdings in companies to effect change — be it political, environmental or social — bumps up the targeted companies’ cost of capital. It adds what Harvard Law School calls “voice”, driving change that reverberates through mass media and high-profile institutions, and ultimately defenestrating the powerful lobbying might of perceived miscreants.

So runs the theory. Cases backing it up include the kneecapping of Big Tobacco in the western world and the (official) end of apartheid in South Africa. The latter came after 155 North American colleges and schools divested $719bn — over $2tn in today’s money — of relevant holdings.

In practice, things are less clear cut. For one, divestment seldom occurs in isolation and only works as part of a bigger arsenal, comprising sanctions, political will and withdrawal of other financing, such as bank debt. Big Tobacco’s whammy included multibillion dollar lawsuits, government clampdowns on advertising and more health conscious populations.

Divestment, which as cynics point out is simply switching ownership to disinterested parties, is itself a long game. Guardians of assets, be they endowments, pensions or mutual funds, would be doing their investors a big disservice by dumping targeted stock wholesale: instead they plot lengthy and staggered exits, details of which are kept carefully under wraps.

Take fossil fuel divestiture, which boasts some hallmarks of success. There are now 1,600-plus institutions, sitting on an aggregate $40tn-plus of assets, according to Stand.earth which runs a database of fossil fuel divestment commitments. Conservatively, some $1tn has moved out of — or is pledged to exit — the sector in the past 13 years, estimates Stand.earth’s Richard Brooks.

There have been high-profile sellers, like the Church of England whose money managers plan to jettison oil and gas majors not already excluded from its £10.3bn portfolio. “It is our duty to protect God’s creation,” said the Most Revd Justin Welby, Archbishop of Canterbury and chair of the Church Commissioners for England.

But even big voices go only so far when other factors are at play: oil, whose fortunes are in any case cyclical, saw prices rise on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Far from denting the cost of capital, share prices of traditional energy stalwarts have comfortably outperformed renewables over the past three years.

Hence the carrot and stick trade to redeploy funds into sustainable energy. The New York State Common Retirement Fund has committed

Steelmakers warn ministers that UK faces dumping risk

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Pension funds need ‘compelling’ returns from UK nuclear projects to invest

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