At Investment Week’s inaugural Private Markets Summit last week, Alpha FMC director Adam Croutear and Lionpoint Group senior manager Louis de Watteville said semi-liquid funds could intensify existing regulatory pressures on wealth management firms. Under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Consumer Duty, wealth managers must demonstrate that the products and services they offer to retail customers provide fair value, and act to deliver good outcomes for clients. Semi-liquid fund structures, such as the UK’s LTAF or the EU’s ELTIF 2.0, have broadened wealth manager access to private as…
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Partner Insight: How do US elections affect stock market performance?
Key Insights The health of the U.S. economy appears to have played an important role in whether the incumbent party retained the presidency in an election year. In turn, whether the incumbent party won the White House seemed to influence trends in market volatility before and after past elections. We believe that investment decisions should be based on longer‑term fundamentals, not near‑term political outcomes.
The U.S. presidential election cycle is ramping up. So is media coverage and a barrage of political advertising.
The contest between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump—and its implications—looms large in the minds of investors both in the U.S. and abroad.
Let’s explore the historical relationship between U.S. presidential elections and the performance of the broader U.S. equity market.
Correlations exist in varying degrees, but clients should focus on what ultimately matters over the longer term: the economy and business fundamentals.
Know the data’s limits
The market performance data used in this study go all the way back to 1927. However, only 24 presidential elections have occurred over this period, so it’s difficult to draw statistically significant conclusions about how those elections impacted stock market returns.
Moreover, we would caution against focusing on a single variable that ignores the many other factors that historically have driven market returns.
Some of the elections in our sample occurred in years when major economic developments—not the elections themselves—had an outsized influence on equity markets.
Examples include the Great Depression (1932), World War II (1940 and 1944), the bursting of the technology bubble (2000), the global financial crisis (2008), and the COVID‑19 pandemic (2020).
Has the timing of U.S. presidential elections mattered for stock market returns?
Average and median total returns for the S&P 500 Index were modestly lower in presidential election years compared with both non‑election years and with the long‑term average for the past 96 years of market performance (Figure 1).
S&P 500 has posted lower total returns in presidential election years
(Fig. 1) Average and median calendar year returns
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Source: T. Rowe Price analysis of data from Bloomberg Finance L.P. See Additional Disclosure.
Total returns include gross dividends. We use average and median average annual returns to see if an
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Too good to be true: the greenwashers’ box of tricks
Andreas Hoepner co-leads the GreenWatch team at University College Dublin. He also heads the Data Science Hub of the EU Platform on Sustainable Finance
Nobody wants to be caught out as a liar, and no company wants to be caught out as a greenwasher. Trust matters, and a company that is found to be lying about how green it is risks losing the goodwill of its customers and its investors.
Yet greenwashing is rampant, to the point where regulators in jurisdictions including the EU, Australia and the US are cracking down. So why do companies persist? Because, it seems, they think they can get away with it and are using increasingly sophisticated means to do so.
Consider what needs to happen for a greenwashing allegation to stick. Three conditions need to be fulfilled: first, a company must make a green claim; second, someone must pay enough attention to discover that it is not entirely true or even outright false; and third, the blame for the greenwashing needs to be directed towards the company instead of a third party.
The most straightforward way for a company to avoid such unwelcome accusations would be simply not to make any green claims. But that would have big downsides: marketing teams would lose a key narrative for societal engagement; human resources teams would find it harder to recruit; and sustainability teams could find their role in business development curtailed.
An alternative strategy would be to invest lots of money and time in research and development to create products whose greenness stands up to scientific review. But, apart from being resource-intensive and slow to market, this would require companies either to produce all parts and raw materials themselves or find exclusively like-minded suppliers.
Given the business realities of the 21st century, the upshot is that, while many companies like to make green claims, they also feel pressured to cut green corners. To avoid accusations of greenwashing, therefore, they are resorting to increasingly sophisticated means that focus on the second and third conditions outlined above, with the aim of diverting attention and avoiding blame.
Building on previous work by Lucia Alessi at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, John Willis at sustainability researcher Planet Tracker, and their respective co-authors, I classify greenwashing according to five different mechanisms, each of which has classic and sophisticated applications. These are set out in the table below.
The oldest and simplest trick is disclosing misleading information. In the
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